In this paper we introduce and test the hypothesis that the relation between inflation and unemployment has been in many countries subject to a significant change in the early 1990's after the disinflation period. That period began between 1975 and 1980 after the first (or the second) oil price...

This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts using different estimation windows to account for structural change. We let the weights reflect the probability of each time point being the most-recent break point, and we use the reversed ordered Cusum test statistics to...

This paper proposes an econometric evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in the euro area, under a particular specification of the adaptive learning hypothesis. The key assumption is that agents' perceived law of motion is a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, whose coefficients...