We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time-varying risk premium consistent with that bias....

Carry trade strategies in which investors sell forward currencies that are at a forward premium and buy forward currencies that are at a forward discount are, on average, profitable. According to the uncovered interest rate parity they should not. A risk premia story might justify the high...

We propose an easy-to-implement conditional currency carry trade (CT) strategy that excludes regimes for which UIP is likely to hold, namely when interest rate differentials (IRDs) are very large during high foreign exchange (FX) volatility regimes. We find that conditioning a CT strategy on...