A full understanding of how gasoline prices affect consumer behavior frequently requires information on how consumers forecast future gasoline prices. We provide the first evidence on the nature of these forecasts by analyzing two decades of data on gasoline price expectations from the Michigan...

This paper analyzes the predictive power of a new data set of consumer gasoline price forecasts taken from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). MSC data generally perform as well as a no-change forecast in predicting future gasoline prices, and they substantially out-perform the no-change...

Theory and intuition tell us that the imposition of stringent environmental policies by a given country will reduce its net exports of commodities produced using pollution-intensive industries. It is therefore surprising that many empirical studies of international commodity trade have failed to...