This paper consists of three reports on stochastic forecasting for Social Security, on infinite horizons, immigration, and structural time series models. 1) In our preferred stochastic immigration forecast, total net immigration drops from current levels down to about one million by 2020, then...

This paper consists of three reports on stochastic forecasting for Social Security, on infinite horizons, immigration, and structural time series models. 1) In our preferred stochastic immigration forecast, total net immigration drops from current levels down to about one million by 2020, then...

Under the life-cycle saving model, population aging leads to an increased demand for life-cycle wealth. Changes in transfer systems create or destroy one component of life-cycle wealth-transfer wealth. The decline in the familial transfer system in Taiwan and reform of the US Social Security...