India is a central partner for German and European foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific. The German Federal Government's autumn 2020 guidelines and the November 2021 coalition agreement both emphasise the importance of expanding relations with India. To advance the common cause of a multilateral...

Die Spannungen in der Weltwirtschaft und die Sorge um eine zu starke wirtschaftliche Abhängigkeit Europas von China rücken Indien in den Blickpunkt. Dort leben knapp 18 % der Weltbevölkerung in einer demokratischen Staatsform. Allerdings beträgt die Größe des Marktes bestenfalls ein...

Im Sommer 2022 haben die Europäische Union (EU) und Indien erneut Verhandlungen über ein Freihandelsabkommen aufgenommen, um ihre strategische Partnerschaft zu vertiefen. Darüber hinaus verhandeln die beiden Seiten über ein Investitionsschutzabkommen sowie ein Abkommen zum Schutz...

In 2000, the Strategic Partnership between India and Germany symbolised new-found commonalities shared by the countries in the era of globalisation. More than two decades later, the agreement requires an upgrade in order to address the changing international, regional and national dynamics. This...

Foreign exchange market efficiency is commonly investigated by Fama-regression tests of uncovered interest parity (UIP). In this paper, we conjecture a speculative UIP relationship which implies that exchange rate changes comprise a time-varying risk component in addition to the forward...

In this paper we investigate whether trading the forward bias allows for economically significant excess returns. We find that bias-trading strategies can be viewed as attractive investment opportunities per se, useful diversification devices, and promising portfolio extensions for active fund...

We were asked by the Independent Evaluation Office to outline political science methods for assessing the chances of reform implementation in an ex-ante fashion. We agreed to illustrate how these tools 'work' by using Pakistan as a case study. The recent literature on IMF-sponsored reforms...

In this paper, we derive the dynamics and assess the economic value of currency speculation by formalizing the concept of a trader inaction range. We show that exchange rate returns comprise a time-varying risk-premium and that uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds in a speculative sense. The...