This paper presents an axiomatic approach to the problem of aggregating expert assessments of an event's probability into some group probability assessment. A multiplicative formula is derived.

Multiattribute utility theory requires a specific relation between the range of outcomes of each attribute and the weight for that attribute. The greater the range, the greater the weight has to be. Experimental results show that subjects do not adjust their judgments properly if the range is...

This paper investigates the accuracy of an approximation procedure for evaluating alternatives under uncertainty with multiple evaluation attributes. This approximation uses only the first two moments of the probability distributions for the alternatives, and hence it can substantially reduce...

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is flawed as a procedure for ranking alternatives in that the rankings produced by this procedure are arbitrary. This paper provides a brief review of several areas of operational difficulty with the AHP, and then focuses on the arbitrary rankings that occur...