Background: Decision-analytic modelling (DAM) has become a widespread method in health technology assessments (HTA), but the extent to which modelling is used differs among international HTA institutions. In Germany, the use of DAM is optional within HTAs of the German Institute of Medical...

In important conflicts such as wars and labor-management disputes, people typically rely on the judgment of experts to predict the decisions that will be made. We compared the accuracy of 106 forecasts by experts and 169 forecasts by novices about eight real conflicts. The forecasts of experts...

Substantial evidence indicates that information is distorted during decision making. However, no studies have assessed the distortion of outcome and probability information in risky decisions or the effects of ambiguity on information distortion. We report two studies involving six binary...

Substantial evidence indicates that information is distorted during decision making. However, no studies have assessed the distortion of outcome and probability information in risky decisions or the effects of ambiguity on information distortion. This paper reports two studies involving six...

Nutrients are the number one water pollution problem for U.S. lakes, reservoirs, and ponds. Excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, lead to eutrophication, a condition that can include low oxygen levels, noxious algal blooms, and fish kills. Since eutrophication is a condition that...

Probability forecasts play an important role in many decision and risk analysis applications. Research and practice over the years have shown that the shift towards distributional forecasts provides a more accurate and appropriate means of capturing risk in models for these applications. This...

Mobile information and communication technologies (ICT) promise to significantly transform enterprises, their business processes and services, improve employee productivity, effectiveness, and efficiency, and create new competitive advantages and business agility. Despite the plethora of...

This research proposes a normative approach in two infrastructural manufacturing decisions: quality and product development. Quality, as employed in the research, is defined as satisfying customer needs given a market segment. Product defects lead to customer dissatisfaction and have a negative...

Conjoint analysis is widely used as a marketing research technique to study consumers? product preferences and simulate customer choices. It is used in designing new products, changing or repositioning existing products, evaluating the effect of price on purchase intent, and simulating market...

Customers change their preferences while getting more familiar with services or being motivated to change their buying habits. Different sources of motivation induce customers to change their behavior: an advertisement, a leader in a reference group, satisfaction from services usage and other...