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We analyze the relationship between the prices of ethanol, agricultural commodities and livestock in Nebraska, the U.S. second largest ethanol producer. The paper focuses on long-run relations and Granger causality linkages between ethanol and the other commodities. The analysis takes possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294304
We revisit the sources of the bias in Federal Reserve forecasts and assess whether a precautionary motive can explain the forecast bias. In contrast to the existing literature, we use forecasts submitted by individual FOMC members to uncover members' implicit loss function. Our key finding is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294354
-memory counterparts. Since long memory models should have a particular advantage over long forecasting horizons, we consider predictions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294979
forecasting financial volatility. We use the auto-covariances of log increments of the multi-fractal process in order to estimate … ?scaling? approach. Our empirical estimates are used in out-of-sample forecasting of volatility for a number of important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295056
Bayesian forecasting of volatility. However, applicability of MLE is restricted to cases with a discrete distribution of … leads to gains in forecasting accuracy for some time series. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295106
-memory counterparts. Since long memory models should have a particular advantage over long forecasting horizons, we consider predictions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295136
forecasting of volatility. However, applicability of MLE is restricted to cases with a discrete distribution of volatility … leads to gains in forecasting accuracy for some time series. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295151
macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. By means of an empirical application we demonstrate that these models turn out to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295783
This paper gives a brief survey of forecasting with panel data. Starting with a simple error component regression and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295814
relate to the forecasting environment (which cannot be influenced by the forecasters). Among the variables capturing the … forecasting design (which can, by contrast, be influenced by the forecasters), the size of the dataset from which factors are … unbalanced panel, whether restrictions implied by the factor structure are imposed in the forecasting equation or not and whether …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295831