This paper describes a methodology based on decision analysis for addressing major program decisions in the development of magnetic fusion energy. The development of this complex technology involves a sequence of funding choices over time among multiple technical approaches and under...

A model of the innovation diffusion process is developed using a micromodeling approach that explicitly considers the determinants of adoption at the individual level in a decision analytic framework, and incorporates heterogeneity in the population with respect to initial perceptions,...

An approach is proposed that is useful for long term forecasting of market penetration of new technologies, fuel price and availability, business performance, etc. The central idea is to systematically solicit experts' opinion in the form of subjective probability distributions in making future...

An applied procedure is preserved in this paper which has been used to forecast some of the political risks ars oil company faces from investment in an overseas developing country, e.g., expropriation, taxation, price and production controls. The procedure makes use of a panel of experts, but...

This paper describes a multiobjective decision analysis performed to assist in selecting the conductor, tower size, and number of subconductors per bundle for a proposed 765 kV transmission line. Multiobjective decision analysis is shown to provide a systematic, logical framework for handling...

Buy-Sell "Shotgun" clauses call for a partner who wishes to discontinue a partnership to declare a value for the business, and for the other partner to then buy her out or sell to her at this value. The resulting decision model for an expected utility maximizing individual, who is uncertain of...

This paper proposes and illustrates by example a decision model for a resource allocation problem in urban management--the design of service areas for police mobile units. Estimates of the performance of alternative designs are given by existing analytic models of spatially distributed emergency...

The impact of a decision maker's risk aversion on the choice of an optimal sampling plan is empirically examined for various batch sizes and prior distributions of the process quality level. These plans are compared to those of the classical linear cost model. The comparisons show that...

This paper develops a model to study the stay/leave decisions of Air Force officers. The model includes the most important institutional factors affecting an officer's career: promotion probabilities and timing, regular force integration probabilities, and mandatory separation and retirement...

Project Appraisal Methodology (PAM) is a multidimensional, easy to use tool for assessing the relative merits of R&D projects. It requires users to estimate three vectors of economic and scoring values: energy benefits, consumer savings and societal factors. The Division of Fossil Fuel...