In the evaluation of experiments often the problem arises how to compare the predictive success of competing probabilistic theories. The quadratic soring rule can be used for this purpose. Originally this rule has been proposed as an incentive compatible elicitation method for probabilistic...

This paper proposes tests for comparing the accuracy of density forecasts. The evaluation makes use of scoring rules, which are loss functions defined over the density forecast and the realizations of the variable. In particular, a logarithmic scoring rule leads to the development of asymptotic...

In the evaluation of experiments often the problem arises of how to compare the predictive success of competing probabilistic theories. The quadratic scoring rule can be used for this purpose. Originally, this rule was proposed as an incentive compatible elicitation method for probabilistic...

We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted...

Plurality rule, when applied to a fixed agenda setting, is mostly criticized from being capable of choosing an alternative considered as worst by a strict majority. In this paper we consider an endogenous agenda setting with no more than three alternatives. In those equilibria where the...

This note introduces a scoring rule for ordinal likelihood judgments based on the linear scoring rule. If the ordinal judgments are strict, the scoring rule is incentive compatible for expected utility maximizers as long utility is increasing in wealth. When allowing for non-strict judgments,...

Proper Scoring Rules (PSRs) are popular incentivized mechanisms to elicit an agent's beliefs. This paper combines theory and experiment to characterize how PSRs bias reported beliefs when (i) the PSR payments are increased, (ii) the agent has a financial stake in the event she is predicting, and...

A disadvantage of multiple choice tests is that students have incentives to guess. To discourage guessing, it is common to use scoring rules that either penalize wrong answers or reward omissions. In psychometrics, penalty and reward scoring rules are considered equivalent. However, experimental...