Showing 121 - 130 of 139
A disadvantage of multiple choice tests is that students have incentives to guess. To discourage guessing, it is common to use scoring rules that either penalize wrong answers or reward omissions. In psychometrics, penalty and reward scoring rules are considered equivalent. However, experimental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010685016
We propose new scoring rules based on conditional and censored likelihood for assessing the predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. These scoring rules can be interpreted in terms of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010820862
Probability forecasters who are rewarded via a proper scoring rule may care not only about the score, but also about their performance relative to other forecasters. We model this type of preference and show that a competitive forecaster who wants to do better than another forecaster typically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197710
When choosing a voting rule to make subsequent decisions, the members of a committee may wish this rule to be self-selected when it is the object of a choice among a menu of different possible voting rules. Such concepts have recently been explored in Social Choice theory, and a menu of voting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008790976
The EU procurement directives stipulate that public contracts are awarded to the lowest bidder or to the bidder with the economically most advantageous offer; the latter requiring that a scoring rule must be specified. We provide a simple theoretical framework for tender evaluation and discuss...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008876401
One of the most important issues for aggregating preferences rankings is the determination of the weights associated with the different ranking places. To avoid the subjectivity in determining the weights, Cook and Kress (1990) [5] suggested evaluating each candidate with the most favorable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011052768
When risk averse forecasters are presented with risk neutral proper scoring rules, they report probabilities whose ratios are shaded towards 1. If elicited probabilities are used as inputs to decision-making, naive elicitors may violate first-order stochastic dominance.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011041554
This paper reports on the design of a novel two-stage mechanism, based on strictly proper scoring rules, that allows a centre to acquire a costly forecast of a future event (such as a meteorological phenomenon) or a probabilistic estimate of a specific parameter (such as the quality of an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011109324
This paper reports on the design of a novel two-stage mechanism, based on strictly proper scoring rules, that motivates selfish rational agents to make a costly probabilistic estimate or forecast of a specified precision and report it truthfully to a centre. Our mechanism is applied in a setting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011112666
Competitive bidding (as auctions) is commonly used to procure goods and services. Public buyers are often mandated by law to adopt competitive procedures to ensure transparency and promote full competition. Recent theoretical literature, however, suggests that open competition can perform poorly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005230837