Japan is in a strong recovery. Real GDP growth will exceed 4 percent in 2004 and likely be 3 percent or higher in 2005 and perhaps even 2006. The economy also grew solidly between 2003Q1 and 2004Q2 at an average real annualized rate of 3.2 percent. The pace is sustainable, given Japan's...

If the foreign exchange market behaved as it is assumed to do in economics textbooks, with ubiquitous rational expectations the driving force, it is indeed difficult to imagine why anyone would not want to allow the exchange rate to float (at least for countries that do not satisfy the...

After more than a decade of economic stagnation and minimal structural change, Japan stands on the brink of outright financial crisis--the only debate is whether the Japanese government can dodge its imminent economic threats for another six months at most, or ride the wave of global expansion...

Rarely has the outlook for the Chinese economy been so contested. Th e fi nancial press widely quotes three alternative perspectives on the short- and medium-term outlook. One school argues that the Chinese government's recent eff orts to rein in overly rapid growth are working and that the...

Businesses throughout the US economy continue to transform even after the technology boom has faded. The key sources of this continuing transformation are investment in the information technology (IT) package (hardware, software, and business-service applications) and reorientation of business...

Crude oil prices rose from $10.90 per barrel on March 10, 1999 to $33.92 per barrel exactly one year later. The price increase moved the issues of energy policy briefly from the back pages of the business section to the front page. However, the attention was brief. By early April, prices had...

Recent evidence demonstrates strong links between developing countries' longterm growth and financial reform. Deputy Treasury Secretary Kenneth Dam has suggested that developing countries can transform their domestic financial sectors into "engines of growth."

The debate about what to do with the projected substantial federal budget surpluses over the next 10 years focuses on three basic options: cut taxes, increase expenditures, and retire or pay down federal debt. The result will be a combination. The issue is that of relative proportions. Larger...

Many of the discussions on a new international financial architecture that were spawned by the east Asian crisis have dealt with the future role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This policy brief starts by summarizing the recommendations of five recent reports and one speech, and the...

The global economic recovery is continuing but at a somewhat slower pace than was anticipated six months ago. Specifically, using the country weights from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the forecast for real GDP growth in the world economy during 2002 (i.e., on a fourthquarter-...