After the global financial crisis, there is greater awareness of the need to understand the interactions between the financial sector and the real economy and hence the potential for financial instability. Data from the financial flow of funds, previously relatively neglected, are now seen as...

Central banks (the Fed) and markets (the market) often disagree about the path of interest rates. We develop a model where these different views stem from disagreements between the Fed and the market about future aggregate demand. We then study the implications of these disagreements for...

The goal of this paper is to analyze predictability of future asset returns in the context of model uncertainty. Using data for the euro area, the US and the UK, we show that one can improve the forecasts of stock returns using a model averaging approach, and there is a large amount of model...

The COVID-19 crisis has laid bare many preexisting conditions of modern society. Besides the obvious lack of pandemic preparedness, these include biodiversity loss, air pollution, supply chain vulnerabilities, and inequality, to name a few – all systemic risks that threaten the health and...

This paper develops a general equilibrium model for a representative agent, production economy with stochastic internal habit formation. The model describes a scale-independent economy, with a unique stochastic investment opportunity set. Local correlation between the stochastic interest rate...

This paper investigates whether risk sharing, measured as income and consumption smoothing, among countries in the EU and the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has increased since the adoption of the euro. We ask: Have the recent increase in foreign equity and debt holdings been...

Modern literature departs from time-separable constant relative risk aversion preferences to explain asset pricing facts. This deviation typically implies that wealth shocks generate transitory variations in agents' relative risk aversion and, possibly, portfolio re-allocations over time.I...

The past two decades have witnessed a sharp surge in corporate equity payout. The annual net equity payout of non-financial public companies in the U.S. averaged $525 billion (in 2010 dollars) per year from 2004 to 2019, compared to only $141 billion during the prior 17-year period. Using...

In this paper we study the role of household portfolio rebalancing channel for the aggregate and redistributive effects of monetary policy. The transmission of monetary policy works not only through the usual income and substitution motives, but also through an endogenous portfolio rebalancing...

The goal of this paper is to show that household-level financial distress (FD) varies greatly, meaning there is unequal exposure to macroeconomic risk, and that FD can increase macroeconomic vulnerability. To do this, we first establish three facts: (i) regions in the U.S. vary significantly in...