Usually, offcial and survey-based statistics guide policy makers in their choice of response instruments to economic crises. However, in an early phase, after a sudden and unforeseen shock has caused incalculable and fast-changing dynamics, data from traditional statistics are only available...

This paper proposes a new non-parametric method of constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of vector autoregressive models. The estimation uncertainty is captured by means of bootstrapping and the highest density region (HDR) approach is used to construct the bands. A...

This paper proposes a new non-parametric method of constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of vector autoregressive models. The estimation uncertainty is captured by means of bootstrapping and the highest density region (HDR) approach is used to construct the bands. A...

This paper proposes a new non-parametric method of constructing joint con- dence bands for impulse response functions of vector autoregressive models. The estimation uncertainty is captured by means of bootstrapping and the highest density region (HDR) approach is used to construct the bands. A...

There is evidence that estimates of long-run impulse responses of structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models based on long-run identifying restrictions may not be very accurate. This finding suggests that using short-run identifying restrictions may be preferable. We compare structural VAR...

Business tendency survey indicators are widely recognized as a key instrument for business cycle forecasting. Their leading indicator property is assessed with regard to forecasting industrial production in Russia and Germany. For this purpose, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified...

Summary Credit rationing is often considered as the outcome of asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers. The paper combines this aspect with a marginal price setting behavior of the banks. The resulting model describes adjustment processes between interbank rates, interest rates on...

Zusammenfassung Monte Carlo Methoden haben sich auf vielen Gebieten der Statistik und Ökonometrie als wertvolles Instrument erwiesen. Die übliche Verwendung von Pseudozufallszahlen führt dazu, daß der Zusammenhang zwischen einem allgemeinen Zufallsbegriff und der Anwendung in Monte Carlo...