This paper proposes a new approach of forecasting “prospective" comparative advantages based on relative prices differences between countries in the context of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries that have already passed...

Model selection – choosing the relevant variables and structures – is a central task in econometrics. Given a limited number of observations, estimation and inference depend on this choice. A frequently treated model-selection problem arises in multivariate autoregressive models, where the...

The concept of a flexible region describes an infinite variety of symmetrical shapes to enclose a particular region of interest within a space. In experimental design, the properties of a function on the region of interest is analyzed based on a set of design points. The choice of design points...

A widely used method in the analysis of large-scale econometric models is to replace the ``true model'' by an aggregative one in which the variables are grouped and replaced by sums or weighted averages of the variables in each group. The modes of aggregation of the independent and dependent...

The assessment of models of financial market behaviour requires evaluation tools. When complexity hinders a direct estimation approach, e.g., for agent based microsimulation models or multifractal models, simulation based estimators might provide an alternative. In order to apply such...

We continue our research into the Quasi Monte Carlo simulation method and its application in macroeconometrics. Prior research indicated Quasi Monte Carlo simulation to be superior to traditional Monte Carlo methods. Now we address additional important issues including the robustness of the...

Efficient labour contracts on wages and employment could contribute to a reduction in unemployment in Europe. Their implementation is hindered by institutional settings and asymmetric incentives at different levels of the bargaining process. Employed workers have no incentives to forego wage...

Basel II imposes regulatory capital on banks related to the de- fault risk of their credit portfolio. Banks using an internal rating approach compute the regulatory capital from pooled probabilities of default. These pooled probabilities can be calculated by clustering credit borrowers into...