Newell, Mitchell, and Hayes (NMH) conduct three experiments designed to test whether exemplar cuing (EC) theory or a statistical format theory provides a more accurate account for how people make judgments about low-probability events. They report finding support for the statistical format...

Consumers often face decisions about whether to purchase products that are intended to protect them from possible harm. However, safety products rarely provide perfect protection and sometimes "betray" consumers by causing the very harm they are intended to prevent. Examples include vaccines...

The illusion of control refers to a phenomenon whereby people believe their chances of success at a task are greater than would be warranted by objective analysis. This article raises two questions. First, how robust is the illusion of control? Second, how might the illusion be ‘shattered?’...

I agree with Gibbs that the message of the base rate literature reads differently depending on which null hypothesis is used to frame the issue. But I argue that the normative null hypothesis, H0: 'People use base rates in a Bayesian manner,' is no longer appropriate. I also challenge Adler’s...

A 2009 conference at Arizona State University brought together leading scholars to discuss the future of forensic science in light of the blockbuster National Academy of Sciences report entitled ‘Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward'. This paper introduces the...

Reaching an accurate outcome is a central goal of the American trial. But structural features of the legal system, in combination with the cognitive shortcomings of legal actors, hinder the search for truth. Regarding the legal system, various rules and policies restrict decision makers' access...

Part I of this paper discusses the issue of what the frequencies associated with DNA evidence do and do not mean. Part II describes an alternate way of presenting DNA statistics in court based on Bayesian likelihood ratios. This part also addresses issues associated with identifying the...

This Article identifies some of the subtle, but common, exaggerations that have occurred at trial, and classifies each in relation to the three questions that are suggested by the chain of reasoning sketched above: (1) Is a reported match a true match? (2) Is the suspect the source of the trace?...

The significance of reported DNA matches between a suspect and genetic material recovered from a crime scene is usually represented at trial by the random match probability (RMP). The RMP identifies the DNA profile frequency in a reference population. This paper shows that RMPs contribute little...

A DNA match statistic of, say, one in one million means that approximately one person out of every one million in a population will match that DNA profile. Now consider a juror who hears that one in every one hundred thousand people in, say, Houston who are not the source will match...