The financial crises in emerging markets in 1997-1999 were preceded by financial liberalisation, rapid surges in capital inflows, increased levels of indebtedness, and then sudden capital outflows. The study contains four essays that extend the different generations of crisis literature and...

Indicators based on the ratio of credit to GDP have been found to be highly useful predictors of banking crises. We study the difference in this ratio as an early warning indicator. We test a large number of different versions of the differenced credit-to-GDP ratio with data on Euro area...

Using new quarterly U.S. data for the past 120 years, I show that sudden reversals in equity and credit market sentiment approximated by several measures of corporate securities issuance are highly predictive of banking crises and recessions. Deviations in equity issuance from historical...

The early warning system literature on banking crises has often relied on linear classifiers such as the logit model, which are usually estimated with large datasets of multiple regions of countries. We construct an EWS based on an artificial neural network model with monthly data from the...

This study investigates the macroeconomic implications of financial intermediation of international capital inflows in a small open economy (SOE). The interplay between financial intermediation and macroeconomic fluctuations is studied under alternative representations of the relationship...

Recent studies have conjectured that there may be a link between financial liberalization and financial instability in emerging economies. Most of these studies, however, do not investigate whether emerging economies are becoming structurally more vulnerable to currency and banking crises. In...

I empirically analyze the dynamics of business investment following normal recessions (declines in business investment that are not associated with banking crises) and banking crises. Using a panel of 16 advanced economies, I find evidence for significant non-linear trend reversion or...

This paper assesses the causes and costs of the Russian banking crisis, the lending behavior of Russian banks, and it evaluates the authorities' response to the crisis. There appears to be evidence for conservative lending behavior on the part of Russian banks. The paper also searches for ways...