In this paper we assess the merits of financial condition indices constructed using simple averages versus a more sophisticated alternative that uses factor models with time varying parameters. Our analysis is based on data for 18 advanced and emerging economies at a monthly frequency covering...

This paper studies the long-run evolution of bank risk and its links to the macroeconomy. Using data for 17 advanced economies, we show that the riskiness of bank assets declined materially between 1870 and 2016. But even though bank assets have become safer, the losses on these assets are...

The term Systemic Risk belongs to the standard rhetoric of economic policy discussions related to the banking industry. Besides of the goal of protecting small depositors control of systemic risk is given as one of the main arguments for banking regulation. Various recent financial crises have...

Because of secrecy, little is known about the political economy of central bank lending. Utilizing a novel, hand-collected historical daily dataset on loans to commercial banks, we analyze how personal connections matter for lending of last resort, highlighting the importance of governance for...

This paper contends that there is a continuum in Japan's experience of growth and decline from the 1990s to the turn of the century and beyond. A lingering attachment to the bureaucratic, financial and political underpinnings of high-growth success affected Japan's response to critical shifts in...

This paper investigates the impact of the history of crises on macroeconomic performance. We first study the impact of past banking crises on the probability of a future banking crisis. Applying data for 1980 - 2010 for all countries for which the required information is available, controlling...

Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat im Zuge der europäischen Schuldenkrise in den vergangenen Jahren massiv an Bedeutung gewonnen. Der sich zuspitzende Verlauf der Krise vor allem in den südlichen Ländern des Euroraums zwang die EZB zu Maßnahmen, die die geldpolitischen Aktivitäten einer...

Japan's "two lost decades" perhaps represent an extreme example of a weak recovery from a financial crisis, and are now referred to as "Japanization." More recently, widespread stagnation in advanced economies in the wake of the global financial crisis led to fears that Japanization might spread...

In the wake of the recent European debt crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) has grown significantly in importance. As the crisis worsened, the ECB needed to take measures that went far beyond standard monetary policy operations - particularly with respect to its function as lender of last...

The severity and depth of the recent financial crisis hit many by surprise. Despite warning signs, the financial system seems to have been unable to aggregate existing information. As the events of Fall 2008 showed, many investors were caught off guard by the large number of banks collapsing...