In an integrated global economy, the economic fallout of war is not confined to the country where the conflict is fought but spills over to other countries. We study the economic effects of large interstate wars using a new data set spanning 150 years of data for more than 60 countries. War on a...

This paper examines the international transmission effects that a positive supply shock in emerging economies may have on inflation in developed economies. We construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for three countries and analyze the impact of a supply shock in an...

In recent years, rising food prices have returned as a concern for policy makers especially in developing countries. In this context, this paper examines how supply shocks, both domestic and foreign, have mattered to imports and consumption in the global rice market over 1960–2010. Such an...

The paper analyzes the usefulness of budgetary cooperation in a monetary union, even if it is limited to a subgroup of countries with close structural characteristics. The author finds that its advantages depend on the nature of the shocks and on the width of the heterogeneities within the...

This paper studies the impact of market specific news on the short-time forward premia on the Scandinavian electricity market. I show that the short time premia between the day-ahead and intra-day electricity prices on the Scandinavian market can be explained by the arrival of news specific to...

This paper develops a theory of medium term share price movements under slow adjustment in the labour market relative to the share market and perfect foresight in the share market. The model seeks to explain the slow movements in real share prices that have been observed in the OECD countries...

Previous studies of the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations have concluded that real demand shocks account for the bulk of the movements in real exchange rates. In this paper, bilateral real exchange rates between the US, the UK, Germany and Japan are investigated using a statistical...

This paper represents a first attempt to study China’s business cycles using a formal analytical framework, namely, a structural VAR model. It is found that: (a) demand shocks were the dominant source of macroeconomic fluctuations, but supply shocks had gained more importance over time; (b) the...

This paper assesses the nature and correlation of shocks in Visegrad countries and investigates the role of labour mobility in the process of adjustment to the effects of asymmetric shocks. Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models are employed to assess the nature and correlation of shocks...