On 18-19 June 2004, the BIS held a conference on "Understanding Low Inflation and Deflation". This event brought together central bankers, academics and market practitioners to exchange views on this issue (see the conference programme in this document). This paper was presented at the workshop....

This paper compares the depth of the Recent Crisis and the Great Depression. We use a new data set to compare the drop in activity in the industrialized countries for seven activity indicators. This is done under the assumption that the Recent Crisis leveled off in mid-2009 for production and...

This Policy Brief discusses the growth prospects of the Central and Eastern European (CEEC) region following the current economic crisis. It argues that the 'integration model of growth' of the CEEC region was characterised by a very high degree of external liberalisation. In one group of...

We analyze the effectiveness of fiscal policy in general and automatic stabilizers in particular to stabilize output in Eurozone member states under the current institutional framework of fiscal governance. First, a descriptive analysis based on macro data is conducted for the period 2007-2014,...

The recent sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone was characterized by a monetary policy, which has been constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates, and several countries, which faced high risk spreads on their sovereign bonds. How is the government spending multiplier...

Fiscal policy has become quite controversial in the post-Keynesian era, the debate over the Obama stimulus package being a contentious recent example. Some pundits go so far as to take the position that macroeconomic theory has failed to meaningfully progress in terms of providing useful...

We estimate a DSGE model for Brazil that includes both anticipated and unanticipated fiscal shocks. The model contains a relatively detailed public sector, which allows us to investigate the effects of anticipation for a much wider array of fiscal instruments than previously considered in the...

This paper presents a comprehensive framework examining fiscal sustainabil- ity in developing economies. It integrates public capital, labor informality, and global liquidity shocks in a two-sector DSGE model for a small open economy, revealing their intricate interplay and nonlinear impact on...

This paper quantifies the dynamic macroeconomic effects of tax changes in Germany, allowing for anticipation effects of preannounced tax reforms. Identification is achieved using a narrative approach which provides information about the timing of tax reforms. For an anticipated tax shock, we...

This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks in New Zealand. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, I find small output multipliers for government consumption but large multipliers for government investment. Importantly, the real exchange rate...