This recession is different. The balance sheets of consumers, companies and banks are under pressure. The private sector seeks to reduce its debt and this counteracts the Keynesian stimulus more than what the usual flow calculations would suggest. There is no doubt that the deleveraging of banks...

Consumption risk sharing among U.S. federal states increases in booms and decreases in recessions. We find that small firms' access to credit markets plays an important role in explaining this stylized fact: business cycle fluctuations in aggregate risk sharing are more pronounced in states in...

Consumption risk sharing among U.S. federal states increases in booms and decreases in recessions. We find that small firms' access to credit markets plays an important role in explaining this stylized fact: business cycle fluctuations in aggregate risk sharing are more pronounced in states in...

Consumption risk sharing among U.S. federal states increases in booms and decreases in recessions. We find that small firms' access to credit markets plays an important role in explaining this stylized fact: business cycle fluctuations in aggregate risk sharing are more pronounced in states in...

This paper examines the depth and duration of the slump that invariably follows severe financial crises, which tend to be protracted affairs. We find that asset market collapses are deep and prolonged. On a peak-to-trough basis, real housing price declines average 35 percent stretched out over...

Sovereign default models successfully explain business cycle in emerging economies by matching the stylized facts of main economic aggregates in normal and default periods but they usually fail to reproduce both the large levels of debt and spread observed in the data. We introduce political...

This note shows that non-U.S. yield curves contain information about future U.S. recessions and economic activity. Using quarterly data from 1979-2021, a foreign term spread constructed from the bond yields of G-7 constituents is included in regressions of U.S. recession risk and U.S. real GDP...

This paper examines whether monetary expansion is a beggar-thyself or beggar-thy-neighbour policy. Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) show that monetary expansion under producer currency pricing increases domestic and foreign overall welfare, in cases where the cross-country substitutability is high. If...

This paper studies the impact of financial crises on society. Using data on 187 banking crises in 126 countries over the period 1970-2009, I examine the impact of a crisis not only on the economy and the financial sector, but also on health, education, poverty, and gender issues. A wider-angle...