We examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty using a GARCH model that allows for simultaneous feedback between the conditional mean and variance of inflation. We also derive a number of theoretical econometric results and illustrate the relevance of these results with...

We use a long series of annual data that span over 100 years to examine the relationship between output growth and output growth uncertainty in five European countries. Using the GARCH methodology to proxy output growth uncertainty, we obtain two important results: First, more uncertainty about...

By utilizing the techniques of multivariate cointegration and error correction models, we investigate the impact of the different exchange-rate regimes that spanned the 20th century on the bilateral exports between the UK and the US over the last 98 years. Our results support two conclusions....

There has recently been considerable interest in the potential adverse effects associated with excessive uncertainty in energy futures markets. Theoretical models of investment under uncertainty predict that increased uncertainty will tend to induce firms to delay investment. These models are...

We use a cross-section, time-series approach to study the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the European Union (EU) with particular emphasis on the expectations of a single market following the Single European Act of 1987. Using annual data from the 1980s and early 1990s, we...

We use a very general bivariate GARCH-M model and monthly data on EU countries covering the 1962-2003 period to test for the impact of real (output growth) and nominal (inflation) macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of important conclusions....