We investigate the dependence structure between Polish and foreign financial assets, including stocks, bonds and foreign exchange. Our interest is in the importance of global factors for asset valuation and on the strength of financial contagion. We work in the copula framework, which offers a...

The paper presents a novel prior for Bayesian VAR models, characterized by explicit modelling of cointegration that avoids certain unattractive restrictive properties of the priors used previously. The potential of the prior for easy elicitation from the well-established Litterman beliefs is...

The accommodative monetary policy of major central banks has resulted in strong capital inflows into emerging economies. We investigate the extreme dependence – effectively, contagion – between long-term interest rates in core markets and those of Poland in recent years. The issue is...

The present paper examines the term premia in the interbank money market in Poland. We use analyst surveys to proxy interest rate expectations and forward rate agreement (FRA) market data to construct term premia. We consider the term premia at shorter and longer horizons. Both premia follow...

The paper presents a novel prior for Bayesian VAR models, characterized by explicit modelling of cointegration that avoids certain unattractive restrictive properties of the priors used previously. The potential of the prior for easy elicitation from the well-established Litterman beliefs is...