We compute steady-state growth and inflation for 12 emerging economies based on agnostic and parsimonious country-specific time varying parameter (TVP) VAR models. Steady-state metrics offer a natural benchmark against which economic outcomes may be assessed, as they represent the trend growth...

This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000 and 2021, relying on 1,000 regression trees that are constructed based on...

This paper analyzes the relation between country specific high-frequency activity indicators and bond holdings in the portfolio of global investors. Based on positions from more than 20,000 investment funds, it finds that bond flows are significantly impacted by high-frequency activity levels...

We study the effects of globalisation on the slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve for CPI inflation, based on a broad panel of 35 countries and controlling for possibly non-linear exchange rate effects. We find that the output gap generally has a significant positive effect on inflation,...

The pandemic had a significant effect on labour markets. Working hours fell sharply almost everywhere, but the drivers of these declines varied greatly across countries, depending on whether policies to protect worker-firm relationships were in place. Labour markets have bounced back faster than...

We provide ex-post empirical analysis of the effects of climate policies on carbon dioxide emissions at the aggregate national level. Our results are based on a comprehensive database of 121 countries. As climate policies we examine carbon taxes and emissions trading systems (ETS), as well as...

We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) retail electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by around 50% when compared to a standard linear...