The rootogram is a graphical tool associated with the work of J. W. Tukey that was originally used for assessing goodness of t of univariate distributions. Here we show that rootograms are also useful for diagnosing and treating issues such as overdispersion and/or excess zeros in regression...

Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) are an increasingly popular method to assess mastery or nonmastery of a set of fine-grained abilities in educational or psychological assessments. Several inference techniques are available to quantify the uncertainty of model parameter estimates, to compare...

In multinomial processing tree (MPT) models, individual differences between the participants in a study lead to heterogeneity of the model parameters. While subject covariates may explain these differences, it is often unknown in advance how the parameters depend on the available covariates,...

Raw ensemble forecasts display large errors in predicting precipitation amounts and its forecast uncertainty, especially in mountainous regions where local e.ects are often not captured. Therefore, statistical post-processing is typically applied to obtain automatically corrected weather...

Statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions is usually adjusted to a particular lead time so that several models must be fitted to forecast multiple lead times. To increase the coherence between lead times, we propose to use standardized anomalies instead of direct observations and...

Bayesian analysis provides a convenient setting for the estimation of complex generalized additive regression models (GAMs). Since computational power has tremendously increased in the past decade it is now possible to tackle complicated inferential problems, e.g., with Markov chain Monte Carlo...

Clustered covariances or clustered standard errors are very widely used to account for correlated or clustered data, especially in economics, political sciences, or other social sciences. They are employed to adjust the inference following estimation of a standard least-squares regression or...

Airport operations are sensitive to visibility conditions. Low-visibility events may lead to capacity reduction, delays and economic losses. Different levels of low-visibility procedures (lvp) are enacted to ensure aviation safety. A nowcast of the probabilities for each of the lvp categories...

Low-visibility conditions at airports can lead to capacity reductions and therefore to delays or cancelations of arriving and departing flights. Accurate visibility forecasts are required to keep the airport capacity as high as possible. We generate probabilistic nowcasts of low-visibility...

A probabilistic forecasting method to predict thunderstorms in the European Eastern Alps is developed. A statistical model links lightning occurrence from the ground-based ALDIS detection network to a large set of direct and derived variables from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. The...