This study analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on exchange rates based on a comprehensive set of survey forecasts for more than 50 currency pairs. At the first stage, we assess whether the policy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic affects the expected path of exchange rates over the medium...

We build currency portfolios based on the paradigm that exchange rates slowly converge to their equilibrium to highlight three results. First, this property can be exploited to build profitable portfolios. Second, the slow pace of convergence at short-horizons is consistent with the evidence of...

This paper examines whether and how expectations have contributed to the turbulent path of the Turkish lira since 2008. We derive uncertainty measures surrounding gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rates based on survey data from Consensus Economics....

Erwartungen von Konsumenten und Unternehmen sowie deren Optimismus oder Pessimismus können Konsum- und Investitionsentscheidungen beeinflussen und stark auf die Konjunktur wirken. Sie werden oftmals basierend auf Umfragen oder Finanzmarktpreisen gemessen. Für die deutsche Wirtschaft liefern...

This study analyzes the exchange rate pass-through into German import prices based on disaggregated data taken on a monthly basis between 1995 and 2012. Our main contribution is twofold: firstly, we employ various time-series techniques to analyze data for different product categories, and also...

This paper tries to clarify the question of whether foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the Bank of Japan are important for the dollar-yen exchange rate in the long run. Our strategy relies on a re-examination of the empirical performance of a monetary exchange rate model. This is...

This study analyzes the dynamics between real e ective exchange rates and current account patterns from a novel perspective. We start by dissecting long-run and time-varying short-run dynamics between both variables. Following this, we extend our framework by including interest rates into our...

Abstract. Deviations of policy interest rates from the levels implied by the Taylor rule have been persistent after the turn of the century even before the financial crisis. These deviations could be due to lower real interest rates, as stated by the savings glut hypothesis as well as the...

Deviations of policy interest rates from the levels implied by the Taylor rule have been persistent before the financial crisis and increased especially after the turn of the century. Compared to the Taylor benchmark, policy rates were often too low. This paper provides evidence that both...