We use the Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) approach of Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005) to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on wages and employment in the euro area. The use of a large data set comprising country, sectoral and euro area-wide data allows us to...

Germany has about the same proportion of foreigners in its population as the United States, it is an immigration country. In a way, Germany has let immigration happen, but it did not really have an explicit immigration policy in the past. Now it has to make up its mind on its immigration policy...

We investigate the controversial issue whether unemployment is related to productivity growth in the long run, using U.S. data in a framework of infrequent mean shifts. Tests find (endogenously dated) shifts around 1974, 1986, and 1996, system techniques indicate that the shifts are common...

This paper describes the construction of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Bolivia for the year 1997. Three distinctive features render the SAM a useful starting point for distributional analyses. First, production in the agricultural and services sector is split up into formal and informal...

This paper introduces intra- and inter-sectoral technology diffusion via FDI and imports into a recursive-dynamic CGE model for climate policy analyses. It analyzes China’s accession to a Post Kyoto emission regime that keeps global emissions from 2012 on constant. Due to ongoing energy...

The paper discusses early indicators, mechanisms of contagion and potential solutions. Multilateral approaches such as reference zones will not be practical, impeding the international capital flows implies high opportunity costs for the countries involved. The IMF should change its policy...

I use a time-varying parameter model in order to study the predictability of monthly real stock returns in Germany over the period 1880–1913. I find that the extent to which returns were predictable underwent significant changes over time. Specifically, predictability of returns, as measured...

In a series of summits, leading countries of the world will meet to draw up an in¬ternational arrangement for financial stability. Such a rule system should prevent a financial crisis as we have seen it in 2007 and 2008. It should include appropriate principles of mone¬tary policy, rules for...

The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is now the dominant model of inflation dynamics. In recent years, a large body of empirical research has documented price-setting behaviour at the individual level, allowing the assessment of the micro-foundations of pricing models. This paper analyses the...

Bolivia's mid-term growth prospects are promising but these prospects could be lost, due to social unrest and political instability, if the country does not solve its short-term economic problems, resulting from both external shocks and internal factors. Against this background, this paper...