This paper proposes a path-dependent approach for estimating maximum appreciations of the renminbi expected by the market based on first-passage-time distributions. Using market data of the renminbi spot exchange rates, non-deliverable forward rates and currency option prices from 21 July 2005...

This paper opens with a brief description of the Czech FX options market. Several case studies of the Czech koruna option market illustrate how options reflect market sentiment and structural breaks. Risk-neutral implied distributions are suggested as a monitoring tool. Moreover, clear...

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the presence of currency substitution in eight African countries. Design/methodology/approach – This study investigates the presence of currency substitution in eight African countries – Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, Tunisia...

Purpose – Recent research indicates that the random walk hypothesis (RWH) approximately describes the behavior of major dollar exchange rates during the post-1973 float. The present analysis seeks to examine the profitability of currency futures trading rules that assume that spot exchange...

Using a new dataset of currency option prices, we study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-98 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the euro. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of...

Prices of currency options commonly differ from the Black-Scholes formula along two dimensions: implied volatilities vary by strike price (volatility smiles) and maturity (implied volatility of at­the­money options increases, on average, with maturity). We account for both using Gram­Charlier...