We examine whether a link exists between oil price shocks and the U.S. real effective exchange rate. The results show that the two variables appear to be cointegrated and that causality runs from oil prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa. The single-equation error-correction model...

This paper places the data revision model of Jacobs and van Norden (2011) within a class of trend-cycle decompositions relating directly to the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. In both these approaches identifying restrictions on the covariance matrix under simple and realistic conditions may...

Views in the economic literature on the main factors that influence exchange rates have evolved over time in response to economic developments and new trends in economic theory. This article provides a brief interpretative survey of the main theories of exchange rate determination. The factors...

Our paper uses simulation methods to examine the size and power of regime-switching tests for bubbles. We find that even with several hundred observations, the tests show sometimes considerable size distortion. This distortion makes the tests conservative; they understate the significance of the...