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We analyze the determinants of average individual in ation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of in ation uncertainty that disagreement is an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011453118
We analyse the determinants of the inflation trends in ten Southeast European (SEE) countries. Global cost …-related factors and euro area inflation developments play an important role in explaining inflation dynamics in SEE countries. Changes … exchange to the euro area (EA) market appear to be susceptible to inflation spillovers from the euro area. Moreover, nominal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012101480
We analyze the determinants of the inflation trends in ten Southeast European (SEE) countries. Global cost …-related factors and euro area (EA) inflation developments play an important role in explaining inflation dynamics in SEE countries … exchange to euro area market appear to be susceptible to inflation spillovers from the euro area. Moreover, nominal effective …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012124587
This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293489
asymmetry of sectoral relative-price changes and the aggregate inflation rate. This correlation is widely interpreted as … evidence that short-run inflation is determined by supply-side factors; however, we study whether, in addition to the inflation …, that the positive and significant effect of relative-price change asymmetries on inflation is not robust with respect to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281467
consumption via managing inflation expectations based on the Euler equation. Unconventional fiscal policy uses trivial … announcements of future consumer-price increases to boost inflation expectations and consumption expenditure on impact. Instead … inflation expectations and spending today. We find households' inflation expectations and readiness to spend react substantially …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057290
Central banks' announcements that future interest rates will remain low could signal either a weak future macroeconomic outlook - which is bad news - or a future expansionary monetary policy - which is good news. In this paper, we use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to show that these two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011743124
Binding lower bounds on interest rates and large government deficits limit the scope of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate households' spending through financial intermediaries and firms. Policymakers have thus been implementing unconventional policies that aim to increase households'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012490917
In a recent paper, Atkeson and Kehoe (2004) demonstrated the lack of a robust empirical relationship between inflation … relationship by allowing for inflation and growth to have a nonlinear specification dependent on inflation levels. In particular …, we allow for the possibility that high inflation is negatively correlated with growth, while a positive relationship …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012729476
This paper argues that central bankers should temporarily raise inflation when anticipating liquidity traps to signal … their credibility to forward guidance policies. As stable inflation in normal times either stems from central banker …'s credibility, e.g. through reputation, or from his aversion to inflation, the private sector is unable to infer the central banker …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968819