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In this paper we study the effect of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices. While most of the literature has found that expansionary shocks have a positive effect on aggregate price indices, we study the effect on individual prices of a sample of four commodities. This set of commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009404551
This work analyzes the relationship between real interest rates and commodity prices. According to Frankel´s hypothesis (1986-2006): low real interest rates lead to high real commodity prices". However, some empirical evidence suggests that commodity prices can predict monetary policy. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008542672
This work analyzes the relationship between real interest rates and commodity prices. According to Frankel’s hypothesis (1986-2006): "low real interest rates lead to high real commodity prices". However, some empirical evidence suggests that commodity prices can predict monetary policy. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008542684
indicator for monetary policy, showed almost no inflation. This twin development is a puzzle as the evolution of consumer prices … were not responsive to record low interest rates, doubledigit commodity inflation, and a sharp depreciation of the dollar … expansionary monetary policy stance with persistent commodity price inflation, subsequent severe world recession, and financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011159094
We examine how the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affects inflation uncertainty in the … long-term. The unobservable inflation uncertainty is quantified by means of the slowly evolving long-term variance component … of inflation in the framework of the Spline-GARCH model (Engle and Rangel, 2008). For a cross-section of 13 developed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425581
since the early 1990s for a group of 9 economies, 5 of which explicitly target inflation, and ask: To what extent are … disagreements over forecasts of inflation driven by movements in relative prices? The empirical evidence leads to the following … conclusions. First, there is little doubt that IT has contributed to narrowing the forecast differences vis-a-vis U.S. inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156550
To understand the possible trajectory of inflation in 2022 and beyond, it is helpful to understand why the United … States and Europe had so much inflation in 2021. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252688
Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing … the low-inflation policy recommended by a natural rate model even after economists had developed statistical evidence … inflation rate in light of updated probabilities that it assigns to three competing models of the Phillips curve. Cautious …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318603
with a lower inflation rate which conflicts with the need to maintain liquidity in a repressed economy. By examining the … inflation-growth relationship, this study examines whether there is any room for inflating the economy. This would ease the … stalled by prematurely tightening monetary policy. The study finds a two-way relationship between inflation and growth; but …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011213185
The purpose of this paper is to determine the main causes of the Belarus high inflation during the period 1996 … rate. They are also consistent with shocks-and accommodation view of the inflation process. These findings, consistent with … some recent studies of inflation in transition economies, imply that exchange rate and wage policies, in addition to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014059066