We consider the problem of determining the horizon beyond which forecasts from time series models of stationary processes add nothing to the forecast implicit in the conditional mean. We refer to this as the content horizon for forecasts, and define a forecast content function at horizons s =...

Meteorological and economic modelling and forecasting have a number of common features, which suggest that it may be interesting to compare their recent progress in forecasting. We concentrate on two aspects of forecasting: first, measures of the value added of forecasts, and the evolution of...

We consider estimates of the parameters of GARCH models of daily financial returns, obtained using intra-day (high-frequency) returns data to estimate the daily conditional volatility. We obtain asymptotic properties of the estimators and offer some simulation evidence on small-sample...

Since the advent of standard national accounts data over 60 years ago, economists have traditionally relied on monthly or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. However, technological advances of the past several years have resulted...

Using the tail index of returns on U.S. equities as a summary measure of extreme behavior, we examine changes in the equity markets surrounding the development of program trading for portfolio insurance, the crash of 1987, and the subsequent introduction of circuit breakers and other changes in...

We examine a simple estimator for the multivariate moving average model based on vector autoregressive approximation. In finite samples the estimator has a bias which is low where roots of the determinantal equation are well away from the unit circle, and more substantial where one or more roots...

Policy-makers are occasionally confronted with unusual extreme events that have the potential of affecting the national economy, which can have negative implications for such areas as employment, tax revenues, and inflation targets. In such instances, policy-makers may wish to offset the impact...

In hedonic regression models of the valuation of works of art, the age or period at which an artist produces a particular work is often found to have highly significant predictive value. Most existing results are based on regressions that pool many painters. Although the uniqueness of artists'...