This article first reviews methods of foreign exchange intervention and then presents evidence—focusing on survey results—on the mechanics of such intervention. Types of intervention, instruments, timing, amounts, motivation, secrecy, and perceptions of efficacy are discussed.

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Shleifer and Vishny (SV) pointed out some of the practical and theoretical problems associated with assuming that rational risk-arbitrage would quickly drive asset prices back to long-run equilibrium. In particular, they showed that the possibility that asset price disequilibrium would worsen,...

This paper analyzes the ability of both economic variables and moving-average rules to forecast the monthly U.S. equity premium using out-of-sample tests for 1960?2008. Both approaches provide statistically and economically significant out-of-sample forecasting gains, which are concentrated in...

This paper contains a benefit-cost analysis of disinflation. The analysis measures the costs of disinflation by "sacrifice ratios"-the output lost during a disinflation-induced recession. The benefits of disinflation are from recent research that associates lower inflation with higher GDP growth...

We analyze the intertemporal stability of excess returns to technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market by conducting true, out-of-sample tests on previously studied rules. The excess returns of the 1970s and 1980s were genuine and not just the result of data mining. But these profit...