This article reconciles an apparent contradiction found by recent research on U.S. intervention in foreign exchange markets. LeBaron (1996) and Szakmary and Mathur (1997) show that extrapolative technical trading rules trade against U.S. foreign exchange intervention and produce excess returns...

Daily data and component GARCH (CGARCH) models strongly support a positive risk-return relation, in contrast to previous international results. Long-run volatility appears to be important in determining the conditional equity premium, but the evidence might be spurious.

A primary purpose of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was to prevent banking panics by establishing the Federal Reserve System to function as a lender of last resort. Other types of financial crisis require a similar response, however, and the Federal Reserve has repeatedly used its capacity to...

The relatively recent resumption of large international capital flows and the Asian crisis have revived interest in capital controls - taxes or restrictions on international transactions in assets like stocks or bonds. For many years economists considered capital controls to be obviously...

This article investigates the use of genetic programming to forecast out-of-sample daily volatility in the foreign exchange market. Forecasting performance is evaluated relative to GARCH(1,1) and RiskMetrics‘ models for two currencies, the Deutsche mark and the Japanese yen. Although the GARCH...

The Reserve Bank presidents are fully accountable to our democratic institutions and the decentralized structure promotes healthy debate on monetary policy and regulatory issues.

Previous research has established that the Federal Reserve large scale asset purchases (LSAPs) significantly influenced international bond yields. This paper analyzes the channels through which these effects occurred. We use dynamic term structure models to decompose international yield changes...