A striking implication of the replacement of adaptive expectations by Rational Expectations was the "Lucas Critique," which showed that expectation parameters, and endogenous variable dynamics, depend on policy parameters. We consider this issue from the vantage point of a bounded rationality,...

This is a revised and shortened version of Working Paper 2002-11. Commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies. A number of interest rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approximate...

Commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies. A number of interest rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approxmiate commitment policy. We assess these optimal reaction functions and...

A fundamentals based monetary policy rule, which would be the optimal monetary policy without commitment when private agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive learning rules. This problem can be overcome if private expectations are...

The paper presents evidence on exchange rate pass-through and the "Fear of Floating" hypothesis before and after Inflation Targeting for a set of developed and emerging market economies. We use a structural VAR model to estimate the effect of depreciations on prices. The results support the view...

Empirical studies on the process of monetary policy making in a number of advanced economies have shown that a simple policy reaction function (PRF) performs well in explaining the setting of monetary policy. This paper examines an application of a simple PRF in an attempt to broaden the...

The existence of a stable demand for money is very important for the conduct of monetary policy even in this new era of inflation targeting. It is argued that previous work on the demand for money in New Zealand has been either not very satisfactory in a number of ways or outdated. This paper...

A significant body of literature on developed countries support the view that disequilibrium in the money market can affect the future output gap and/or inflation. This paper examines the major determinants of the demand for real money balances in eight developing countries for which consistent...

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper we propose...