Countries pass through different stages of structural transformation. In the early stage of development, economic activity is dominated by agriculture and mining. As a country develops, firms adopt new technology and move toward industrialization and faster economic growth. Eventually, the...

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the...

Typischerweise zählen die Importe zu jenen Größen in der Konjunkturprognose, die die größten Prognosefehler aufweisen. Neben der erheblichen Volatilität der Importwachstumsraten ist dies dem Umstand geschuldet, dass bis dato kein bewährter Vorlaufindikator für die Importe Deutschlands...

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, increasing the importance of imports for total output. Since imports are a volatile component, they are difficult to forecast and strongly influence the forecast accuracy of gross domestic product. We introduce the first leading...

We quantify the role of global production linkages in explaining spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks to stock returns of fifty-four sectors in twenty-six countries. We first present a conceptual framework based on a standard open-economy production network model that delivers a spillover...

We propose a novel indicator to capture pressures that arise at the global supply chain level, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The GSCPI provides a new monitoring tool to gauge global supply chain conditions. We assess the index's capacity to explain inflation outcomes, using the...

COVID-19 has proven to be a unique and complex shock for firms. In this paper we analyze the performance of individual Chilean firms during this episode drawing on administrative datasets. In particular we empirically characterize the international trade adjustment at the firm and product level....

Economy-wide shocks affect demand, supply, and intermediary sectors simultaneously. We dissect the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on international trade by combining information from customs records, smartphone-based human mobility, and container ship port calls. We find that local disruptions...

This paper uses a sample of the biggest private Colombian exporting firms to propose and estimate a two‐step methodology for measuring international managerial skill and calculating its impact on international firm performance. The first step quantifies the managerial team's organisational...

This paper studies the dynamics of importer–exporter connections when importers source inputs from multiple exporters. I first develop a trade model in which heterogeneous importers invest in expanding the set of potential exporters they know and from which they can source. The model delivers...