In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we...

We investigate the concept of connectedness, which is important for risk measurement and management in German energy market. Understanding and learning from these mechanisms are essential to avoid future systemic disasters. To deal with large portfolio selection, we propose regularization...

The increasing exposure to renewable energy has amplified the need for risk management in electricity markets. Electricity price risk poses a major challenge to market participants. We propose an approach to model and fore- cast electricity prices taking into account information on renewable...

Increasing renewable penetration has given rise to a series of challenges as regards the ability of electricity systems to balance supply and demand, particularly with high levels of intermittent renewable generation. This new scenario requires a detailed quantitative assessment of the way in...

The world energy sector is entering a period of transformation, defined by the emergence of a whole range of cost-effective technologies and the formation of new state priorities that can radically change the structure of energy use. The calculations of the development of world energy markets...

Recently Mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower. Against this background, we present in this paper the first integrated long-run scenario model of the Mozambican energy sector. Our model makes use of the LEAP framework and is calibrated on the...

We conduct a hybrid scenario exercise to analyze decarbonization pathways of the European power market and related distributional effects across countries as well as between consumers and producers. Our CIB analysis reveals qualitative scenarios that differ in the level of political (stringency...

The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the...