The co-movement of revenue growth across different industries changes over the business cycle. Using a large sample of quarterly firm revenues, aggregated to industry data from 1969 to 2009, we demonstrate that the correlation is the highest during a crisis. Our findings of structural changes in...

The co-movement of stocks and of fundamentals changes across the business cycle. Empirical studies have shown that the correlation of stock returns is stronger in crisis. We show that the correlation of fundamentals is the highest during crisis using a large sample of quarterly firm revenues...

In this article we investigate the correlation between growth rates of revenues across different industries linked to the phases of the business cycle over a 40-year period. Using a large sample of quarterly firm revenues aggregated to industry revenues, we find that correlations of revenue...

The co-movement of stocks and of fundamentals changes across the business cycle. Empirical studies have shown that the correlation of stock returns is stronger in crisis. We show that the correlation of fundamentals is the highest during crisis using a large sample of quarterly firm revenues...

This paper proposes a risk-based explanation of the momentum anomaly on equity markets. Regressing the momentum strategy return on the return of a self-financing portfolio going long (short) in stocks with high (low) crash sensitivity in the USA from 1963 to 2012 reduces the momentum effect from...

Macro-based asset allocation, i.e., the identification of turning points in macro-financial cycles and the allocation of assets accordingly, has attracted a lot of interest in recent years. This interest was sparked by volatile financial markets, more synchronized returns across asset classes...

Wealth is distributed more unevenly than income, and one contributing factor might be that richer households earn higher portfolio returns. I uncover one channel that causes portfolio returns to be increasing in wealth: Poorer households consistently buy risky assets in booms-when expected...

This paper shows how risk may aggravate fluctuations in economies with imperfect insurance and multiple assets. A two period job matching model is studied, in which risk averse agents act both as workers and as entrepreneurs. They choose between two types of investment: one type is riskless,...

This paper shows that the stylized fact of average mutual fund underperformance documented in the literature stems from expansion periods when funds have statistically significant negative risk-adjusted performance and not recession periods when risk-adjusted fund performance is positive. These...

I first show that taking moving averages of the term spread, the dividend yield, and the Shiller’s CAPE, significantly increases their ability to predict one month and 12-month forward equity market excess returns, and the state of the business cycle. Dividend yield, CAPE and term spread are...