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This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677683
Index number theory informs us that if data on matched prices and quantities are available, a superlative index number …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677703
An increasing body of evidence suggests that the behavior of the economy has changed in many fundamental ways over the last decades. In particular, greater financial deregulation, larger wealth accumulation, and better policies might have helped lower uncertainty about future income and lengthen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677705
We develop a optimal rules-based interpretation of the 'three pillars macroeconomic policy framework': a combination of a freely floating exchange rate, an explicit target for inflation, and a mechanism than ensures a stable government debt-GDP ratio around a specified long run. We show how such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677709
After a long period of global price stability, in 2008 inflation increased sharply following unprecedented increases in the price of oil and other commodities, notably food. Although inflation remained lower and growth higher in inflation targeting countries than elsewhere, almost everywhere...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677710
This paper investigates the value of political institutions for financial markets, using panel data from emerging market countries. We test the hypothesis that changes in political institutions, such as improvements in democratic rights and increased government accountability, have a direct...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677724
budget rule, automatic stabilizers significantly improve welfare. But they minimize fiscal instrument volatility rather than … business cycle volatility. A more aggressively countercyclical tax revenue gap rule increases welfare gains by around 50 … percent, with only modest increases in fiscal instrument volatility. For raw materials revenue gaps the government should let …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677758
Well-known empirical puzzles in international macroeconomics concern the large divergence of equilibrium outcomes for consumption across countries from the predictions of models with full risk sharing. It is commonly believed that these risk-sharing puzzles are related to another empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677771
The impact of fiscal stimulus depends not only on short-term tax and spending policies, but also on expectations about offsetting measures in the future. This paper analyzes the effects of an increase in government spending under a plausible debt-stabilizing policy that links current stimulus to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677773
We study a simple general equilibrium model in which investment in a risky technology is subject to moral hazard and banks can extract market power rents. We show that more bank competition results in lower economy-wide risk, lower bank capital ratios, more efficient production plans and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677775