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This paper provides a new perspective on the exchange rate disconnect puzzle by referring to the expectations building mechanism in foreign exchange markets. Therefore, we analyze the role of expectations regarding macroeconomic fundamentals for expected exchange rate changes. In doing so, we...
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provide useful information for forecasting exchange rates. After accounting for currency-specific constants, a 10 percent …. Finally, deviations from relative Big Mac parity seem to be helpful in forecasting relative local currency prices. When the U ….S. dollar price of Big Macs is high in a country, the relative local currency price of Big Macs in that country is likely to …
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This paper studies how the monetary policy regime affects the relative importance of nominal exchange rates and inflation rates in shaping the response of real exchange rates to shocks. We document two facts about countries with floating exchange rates where monetary policy controls inflation...
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This paper documents two facts about countries with floating exchange rates where monetary policy controls inflation using a short-term interest rate. First, the current real exchange rate predicts future changes in the nominal exchange rate at horizons greater than two years both in sample and...
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