Using data on government bond yields in Germany and the United States, we show that overseas unspanned factors — constructed from the components of overseas yields that are uncorrelated with domestic yields — have significant explanatory power for subsequent domestic bond returns. This...

This paper constructs a 10-year realized term premium from the 10-year zero coupon Treasury yield in year 0 and the ex post 3-month Treasury yields from years 0 to 10. The realized term premium swung wildly until the mid-1980's, and then fluctuated within a fairly stable range showing no trend....

Illiquidity and default risk are determinants of bond spreads that models suggest vary across market states. The Australian sovereign debt market, where the Australian government provided an explicit guarantee over semi-government debt, provides an environment in which to examine these separate...

We document a new risk premium in the Japanese yen that compensates for the policy uncertainty in Japan. The yen risk premium is implied from bond markets under the assumption of no-arbitrage. We estimate a regime switching term structure model and find that in Japan, the conventional monetary...

Although the affine Gaussian term-structure model has been a workhorse model in termstructuremodelling, it remains doubtful whether it is an appropriate model in a low interest rate environment. This paper uses an alternative quadratic Gaussian-term structure model which is well known to be as...

The paper considers a no-arbitrage setting for pricing and relative value analysis of risky sovereign bonds. The typical case of an emerging market country (EM) that has bonds outstanding both in foreign hard currency (Eurobonds) and local soft currency (treasuries) is inspected. The resulting...

This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion of...

Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates help predict bond returns and that (ii) modern Markovian dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) cannot match the evidence. We develop the family of Conditional Mean DTSMs where the dynamics depend on current yields and their history...

I study the term structure of credit default swap spreads to understand the dynamics of global and country-specific risk factors in explaining the time-variation in sovereign credit risk. The analysis suggests that the shape of the term structure conveys significant information on the relative...