Using a novel multivariate microstructure model and time varying estimation framework we analyse the change in the information structure of the segmented Shanghai A and B share listed stocks after a significant set of regulatory reforms in 2001, nicknamed the 'year of regulation' by...

This paper introduces bond market order flow as a predictor variable in term structuremodels and provides evidence that order flow has forecasting ability over and above thatof forward rates. Both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts show that models includ-ing interdealer order flow outperform...

This paper investigates the process of price discovery in government bond markets.By using a new data set including interdealer trades, customer trades, trade types anddealer identities, the paper explores the role of dealers in the price formation processand seeks to identify their sources of...

This paper assesses the microstructure of the U.S. Treasury securities market, using newly available tick data from the BrokerTec electronic trading platform. Examining trading activity, bid-ask spreads, and depth for on-the-run two-, three-, five-, ten-, and thirty-year Treasury securities, we...

We develop a new likelihood-based approach to signing trades in the absence of quotes. This approach is equally efficient as the existing Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods, but more than ten times faster. It can address the occurrence of multiple trades at the same time and allows for analysis of...

The Kyle (1985) model is extended to take into account market maker competition and the spread. It is shown that with a spread the Kyle model has a Nash equilibrium also with two market makers, not only with three or more, as shown in earlier research. The spread is endogenized, and two testable...

Auctions of government bonds are the main allotment method used by the Treasury of advanced economies. Previous research has found that auctions have an influence on the market yield days before they take place, and underpricing is usually spotted when their outcome is compared with...

A number of recent theoretical studies have explored trading in fragmented markets, e.g. Biais etal. (2000), a phenomenon increasingly witnessed in modern markets. The key assumptiongenerating the results is that there is at least one liquidity demander exploiting access to allmarkets by...

Although China now has one of the largest government bond markets in the world, the market has received relatively little attention and analysis. We describe the history and structure of the market and assess its functioning. We find that trading in individual bonds was historically sparse but...

This paper uses proprietary data to evaluate the efficacy of single-stock circuit breakers on the London Stock Exchange during July and August 2011. We exploit exogenous variation in the length of the uncrossing periods that follow a trading suspension to estimate the effect of auction length on...