Sudden stops in capital inflows were a main characteristic of the emerging market crisis during the 1990’s. Concerns about them have recurred in the light of recently increased global stability risk and the quantitative easing that led to substantial capital inflows in emerging economies. We...

Contrary to standard agnostic statistical approaches an output gap estimate based on a New Keynesian Small Open Economy model provides the possibility to analyze the driving forces of the variation in GDP caused by nominal rigidities. This paper makes use of this and provides an estimate of a...

The output gap plays an important role in the assessment and conduct of monetary policy. Most of the current literature, however, relies on filtering procedures which use ad hoc smoothness arguments for identification. Furthermore, they are subject to end-of-sample problems and do not provide...

What drives the output gap? Contrary to standard agnostic statistical approaches, New Keynesian small open economy models allow decomposing the output gap into its shocks and confirm the conventional wisdom that most of the variation is due to foreign shocks. However, the risk premium shock also...

Accessibility of real-time data is crucial for applied macroeconomic researchers who aim at evaluating forecasts, policy decisions or the accuracy of initial data estimates. To the extent of our knowledge, no appropriate and comprehensive real-time data set has been published for Switzerland so...

Sudden stops in capital inflows were a main characteristic of the emerging market crisis during the 1990's. Concerns about them have recurred in the light of recently increased global stability risk and the quantitative easing that led to substantial capital inflows in emerging economies. We add...

Contrary to standard agnostic statistical approaches an output gap estimate based on a New Keynesian Small Open Economy model provides the possibility to analyze the driving forces of the variation in GDP caused by nominal rigidities. This paper makes use of this and provides an estimate of a...