Este documento describe la metodología desarrollada por Vapnik (1995), denominada máquinas de vectores de soporte (SVM, por sus siglas en inglés) y realiza dos aplicaciones al caso de clasificación de agentes para el otorgamiento de créditos a partir de sus características. El primer caso...

For a given set of banks, which economic and financial scenarios will lead to big losses? How big can losses in such scenarios possibly get? These are the two central questions of macro stress tests. We believe that most current macro stress testing models have deficits in answering these...

We present a simple and operational yet rigorous framework that combines current methods of bank solvency stress tests with a description of fire sales. We demonstrate the applicability of our framework to the EBA stress testing exercise. Fire sales are described by an equilibrium model which...

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has arose as an important paradigm to address the issue of distributional ambiguity in decision optimization. In its standard form, DRO seeks an optimal solution against the worst-possible expected value evaluated based on a set of candidate...

Stress tests with handpicked scenarios might misrepresent risks either because the scenarios considered are too implausible or because some dangerous scenarios are not considered. Systematic search for the worst case within some set of plausible scenarios is introduced to overcome these two...

Stress tests with handpicked scenarios might misrepresent risks either because dangerous scenarios are not considered or because the scenarios considered are too implausible. To overcome these two pitfalls we propose a systematic search for the worst case within a relative entropy ball of...

The Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) presents greater challenges than the current Basel 2.5 Framework in calculating and managing market risk. Financial institutions often struggle to comply with regulatory timelines due to the complexity, difficulty, and expense of FRTB...

[ES] Las autoridades reguladoras y supervisoras de los sistemas financieros han probado diversos métodos para intentar encontrar un procedimiento eficaz en la elaboración de un sistema de alerta temprana de las crisis bancarias. Los Modelos de Regresión Logística han sido usados aunque han...

Durante los últimos años el análisis del riesgo de crédito y su dinámica se ha convertido en un tema de alta importancia para la estabilidad del sistema financiero. Es por esto que resulta vital estudiar los co-movimientos que se presentan entre este riesgo y el ciclo económico. En este...

This paper discusses a new methodology to estimate the economic capital by credit risk for a retail portfolio based on the general concepts of copula and dependence measures as well as some core results of the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). The superiority of the proposed approach over the...