This paper verifies the endogenous mechanism and economic intuition on volatility clustering using the coexistence of two locally stable attractors proposed by Gaunersdorfer, Hommes and Wagener (2008). By considering a simple asset pricing model with two types of boundedly rational traders,...

Consider the Rational Expectations price history of an Arrow-Debreu security that matures in the money: p(1), p(2), ..., p(T). Past information can be used to predict the return (p(t+1)-p(t))/p(t). Now consider a simple alternative performance measure: (p(t+1)-p(t))/p(t+1). It differs from the...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

The way in which market participants form expectations affects the dynamic properties of financial asset prices and therefore the appropriateness of different econometric tools used for empirical asset pricing. In addition to standard rational expectations models, this thesis studies a class of...

For many countries located around the equatorial region, climate phenomenon such as El Niño southern oscillation or ENSO has enormous impact on their economies. In the case of countries with a high degree of dependency on water resources for energy generation, the impact of ENSO has been...

We develop an adaptive learning game to rethink efficient markets. We use the stochastically stable state of this game, which is a mixed Nash equilibrium, to form an adaptive expectation model that provides an estimate of the confidence interval for prices on the next day. The estimate is most...

We investigate a shift in market norm from an efficient state, where prices are unpredictable, to the state where overconfidence spreads by contagion. Overconfidence means investors will buy more stocks that have enjoyed recent gains. It suggests that price shocks in a recent past may explain...

We develop an adaptive learning game to rethink the efficient markets hypothesis using the stochastically stable state of this game to characterize a richer set of market states than those suggested by the hypothesis. In particular, the model predicts that the economy may follow a path leading...

Risk management and the thorough understanding of the relations between financial markets and the standard theory of macroeconomics have always been among the topics most addressed by researchers, both financial mathematicians and economists. This work aims at explaining investors' behavior from...