On the last 3 months, there have been some concerns over the weakening of Indonesian Rupiah currency that mostly driven by bearish trend in Indonesia's equity market. Though the explanation of this correlation is known mostly due to foreign capital flow in the equity market (hot money), it...

We study the effects of FX liquidity risk on carry trade returns using a low-frequency market-wide liquidity measure. We show that a liquidity-based ranking of currency pairs can be used to construct a mimicking liquidity risk factor, which helps in explaining the variation of carry trade...

The decade prior to the Great Recession saw a boom in global trade and rising transportation costs. High-yielding commodity exporters' currencies appreciated, boosting carry trade profits. The Global Recession sharply reversed these trends. We interpret these facts with a two-country general...

We find evidence for time-varying risk premia across international bond markets. Local and global factors jointly predict returns. The global factor is closely linked to US bond risk premia and international business cycles. Movements in the global factor seem to drive risk premia and expected...

A sentiment-based model of the exchange rate is proposed to understand the forward premium puzzle. Agents over- or underestimate the growth rate of the economy. All else equal, when perceived domestic growth is higher than perceived foreign growth, the domestic interest rate is higher than the...

Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, these relationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high-frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011....

The covid-19 crisis has led to a sharp deterioration in firm and bank balance sheets. The government has responded with a massive intervention in corporate credit markets. We study equilibrium dynamics of macroeconomic quantities and prices, and how they are affected by government policy. The...

The use of futures exchange contracts instead of forwards completes the maturity spectrum of the correlation between the spot yield and the premium. We find that the forward premium puzzle (FFP) depends significantly on the maturity horizon of the futures contract and the choice of sampling...

For a foreign exchange settlement network we construct profit attributions and relate them to centrality. Our sample (from CLS Bank) spans diverse currency pairs, participants, and execution platforms. For each settlement we define the average centrality differential as the return to the...

We develop an equilibrium model in a two-country, two-good, pure exchange economy in which investors with logarithmic utility functions have heterogeneous beliefs about exogenously given output or endowment processes. We obtain closed-form representations of real exchange rate and of stock...