We provide new evidence on the pricing of exchange risk in the global stock markets. We conduct empirical tests in a conditional setting for ten developed markets and twelve emerging markets to determine whether emerging market currency risk affects emerging market equities and if it spills over...

This introductory note summarizes and draws together the work reported in eight research papers written by staff economists of the Board's Division of International Finance as part of a project on global financial integration. The eight papers are also International Discussion Finance Discussion...

The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naive random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...

The financial rates of return from Latin American stock and currency markets are found to be non-normal, non-stationary, non-ergodic and long-term dependent, i.e., they have long memory. The degree of long-term dependence is measured by monofractal (global) Hurst exponents from wavelet...

We study the comovement among stock prices and among exchange rates in a three-good three-country Center-Periphery dynamic equilibrium model in which the Center's agents face portfolio constraints.We characterize equilibrium in closed form for a broad class of portfolio constraints, solving for...

This study shows that the information content of FX transactions depends on the identity of market participants. Using spot FX transactions of a major Australian bank, we find that central banks have the greatest price impact, followed by non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) such as hedge...

We study the implications of introducing demand shocks and trade in goods into an otherwise standard international asset pricing model. Trade in goods gives rise to an additional channel of international propagation - through the terms of trade - absent in traditional single-good models. The...

Large fundamental imbalances persist in the global economy, with potential exchange rate implications. This paper assesses whether exchange rate risk is priced across G-7 stock markets. Given the multitude of hedging instruments available, theory suggests that stock market investors should not...

A typical strategy used by speculators to launch an attack on a fixed exchange regime is the use of forward markets. Central banks also intervene in forward markets to counter speculation. This paper addresses the question of how an attack is launched on the forward market, and what the optimal...

We analyze the impact of both Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) deviations and market segmentation on asset pricing and investor's portfolio holdings. The freely traded securities command a world market risk premium and an inflation risk premium. The securities that can be held by only a subset of...