Separate literatures study violations of uncovered interest parity using regression-based and portfolio-based methods. We propose a decomposition of these violations into a cross-currency, a between-time-and-currency, and a cross-time component that allows us to analytically relate...

For the first time in 15 years, FX trading volumes contracted between two consecutive BIS Triennial Surveys. The decline in trading by leveraged institutions and "fast money" traders, and a reduction in risk appetite, have contributed to a significant drop in spot market activity. More active...

Carry returns have been widely observed in the FX market. This study exploits the common information embedded in several factors previously identified as relevant to carry trade returns. We find that the extracted common factor successfully models the time series and cross-sectional...

This paper is first to establish profound evidence on the existence of a low-risk anomaly in currency markets. In particular, I discover a novel strategy in currency forward markets that is long in currencies whose higher return moments are low relative to past levels and short in currencies...

We develop a new model of the mortgage market where both borrowers and lenders can default. Risk tolerant savers act as intermediaries between risk averse depositors and impatient borrowers. The government plays a crucial role by providing both mortgage guarantees and deposit insurance....

We investigate whether structurally hedging the currency risk of global equity products benefits long-term investors. Based on a 35 year back-test of 3 smart beta strategies from 6 currency perspectives, our answer is a qualified “yes”. Currency hedging was effective in reducing risk and...

Using a measure of global political risk, relative to the U.S., that captures unexpected political conditions, we show that political risk is priced in the cross section of currency momentum and contains information beyond other risk factors. Our results are robust after controlling for...

We examine whether country fundamentals help explain the cross-section of currency excess returns. For this purpose, we consider fundamental variables such as default risk, foreign exchange rate regime, capital control as well as interest rate in the multi-factor model framework. Our empirical...

Pricing errors in exchange rates are largest during Asian trading hours and decrease until European-New York overlapping trading hours at which point the cycle begins again. Substantial heterogeneity exists in this pattern across exchange rates. Currencies have smaller pricing errors during...

In this paper we derive the measure of position-unwinding risk of currency carry trade portfolios from the currency option pricing model. The position-unwinding likelihood indicator is in nature driven by interest rate differential and currency volatility, and highly correlated with global...