Economists often seek to estimate unobserved variables, representing “equilibrium” or “expected” values of economic variables, as benchmarks against which observed, realised values of these variables may be evaluated. Such comparisons are often used as economic policy indicators, for...

At the onset of the crisis, euro area – like all Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries – public finances have massively inflated, as is typical in financial crises. The major difference with the past is threefold: the synchronicity across countries of the...