The purpose of this paper is the comparative analysis of four natural gas storage valuation approaches. In competitive natural gas markets the optimal valuation and operation of natural gas storages is a key task for natural gas companies operating storages. Within this paper, four spot based...

This paper is the first to discuss the design of futures hedging strategies in European natural gas markets (NBP, TTF and Zeebrugge). A common feature of energy prices is that conditional mean and volatility are driven by seasonal trends due to weather, demand, and storage level seasonalities....

Building on a model of the interaction of risk-averse firms that compete in forward and spot markets, we develop an empirical strategy to test whether oligopolistic firms use forward contracts for strategic motives, for risk-hedging, or for both. An increase in the number of players weakens the...

This SIMAT Working Paper deals with an intensively discussed topic in the German natural gas economy: The price-link in natural gas contracts. Because of opposite price developments of the energy commodities such as oil, coal or natural gas, the traditionally used oil price-link is facing a...

In many futures markets, trading is concentrated in the front contract and positions are rolled-over until the strategy horizon is attained. In this paper, a pair-wise comparison between the conventional risk premium and the accrued risk premium in rolled-over positions in the front contract is...

Common wisdom about the effects of gas market liberalization in the EU claims that the fragmentation of gas supply in the downstream market can raise the price of gas imports, as the bargaining power of European firms in the upstream market would be weakened. We consider such a claim from the...

Building on a model of the interaction of risk-averse firms that compete in forward and spot markets, we develop an empirical strategy to test whether oligopolistic firms use forward contracts for strategic motives, for risk-hedging, or for both. An increase in the number of players weakens the...

We address investment in regulated natural gas pipelines when investment is lumpy and the demand for gas is stochastic. This is a problem that can be solved in theory as a dynamic program, but a practical solution depends on functions and parameters that are either subjective or cannot be...

Clients recently approach us for equity strategy related to the shale gas industry. On one hand, shale gas is viewed as “the biggest energy innovation of the decade” and can significantly expand the supply for the US and the whole world. One the other hand, the current depressed natural gas...

Japan's natural gas industry is reliant on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) that normally requires regasification prior to consumption. Unbundling of the industry has not been enforced and while some local distribution utilities purchase gas via pipelines that is regasified by the seller,...